The Red Sea holds significant strategic importance as a vital route for the global economy, facilitating around 12% of seaborne goods that pass through the Suez Canal each year. This plays a crucial role in the trade between Asia and Europe. Tensions in the southern Red Sea heightened following the seizure of the car-carrier Galaxy Leader by the Yemeni Houthi group on November 19, 2023, where the group expressed its intention to target ships linked to Israel in support of Palestinians in Gaza. Subsequently, merchant vessels were targeted in missile attacks, leading major shipping lines to reroute their ships around the southern tip of Africa. This resulted in delays and increased costs for trade between Asia and Europe.
In response, the United States initiated "Operation Prosperity Guardian," deploying naval patrols from ten nations to safeguard commercial ships and take military action against Houthi attacks. Tensions escalated on January 11 when the US and British air forces conducted airstrikes against Houthi military sites associated with ship attacks in the Red Sea. However, international opinion remains split regarding the actions of the US-led coalition. Meanwhile, the Houthis, designated as a global terrorist organization by the US on January 17, 2024, persist in their military operations despite ongoing airstrikes and international sanctions.
This analysis aims to examine the consequences and aftermath of the escalating crisis in the Red Sea, which was triggered by the Gaza War. Additionally, it seeks to emphasize the significance of exploring alternative security approaches.
Warship Diplomacy
No major or medium power in the international system currently desires to repeat the closure of the Red Sea, as was seen after the 1967 Arab-Israeli War. There is a global consensus on the importance of keeping the shipping lanes in the Red Sea open, given the significant indirect impacts of closure on trade between Europe and Asia. It is important to note that the Red Sea security challenge predates the Gaza War between Israel and Hamas and has roots dating back decades, as major powers engaged in a competitive scramble for the region, leading to diverse security approaches and escalating maritime threats. For example, to combat piracy, the European Union initiated Operation Atlanta in 2021, deploying warships from 13 European countries, including the UK which provided the flagship until Brexit, and collaborating with ships from Ukraine, India, Korea, and Colombia.
After several years of operation, fleet leaders recognized that addressing piracy required diplomacy focused on resolving conflicts in Somalia and providing economic assistance to support the livelihoods of impoverished fishermen. This marked a positive step forward. Furthermore, in 2020, the Red Sea Forum was formed, consisting of eight coastal countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan, with the aim of tackling piracy, smuggling, and maritime resource management, independent of political considerations.
Alternative Approach
Despite security and military-focused approaches, historically, the Red Sea has served as a bridge rather than a barrier, fostering cultural exchange, trade, and social relations between peoples on both shores. Egypt, for instance, has held interests in both the Nile Valley and the Red Sea coasts for millennia. Similarly, Ethiopia has a crucial interest in accessing the sea, while the Gulf Arab states and Turkey also have long standing and current interests.
The term "Red Sea Arena" was proposed with these historical and strategic considerations in mind. The aim was to establish a diplomatic forum involving not only coastal states, but also all other countries with significant interests in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, or those with political and commercial ties across the narrow waterway. This proposal was based on the recommendations in the World Peace Foundation report titled "African Policy, African Peace," co-authored by former South African President Thabo Mbeki and veteran UN diplomat Lakhdar Brahimi. The report emphasized the importance of Middle Eastern countries signing the principles of the African Union’s African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) and establishing joint cooperation mechanisms. However, the African Union failed to implement these proposals, which has further entrenched warship diplomacy in international approaches to dealing with security issues in the Red Sea.
The current regional and global power struggles persist in the Red Sea area. Several countries, including the United States, China, and Turkey, possess naval bases in Red Sea nations. Additionally, countries like Iran and Russia have deployed warships in the region and are actively pursuing the establishment of naval bases. The port of Eilat in the Gulf of Aqaba serves as Israel's strategic backdoor, as evidenced by significant Houthi attacks on ships.
Implications of the Current Crisis
The crisis in the Red Sea, marked by Houthi attacks on commercial shipping, has extensive implications and serious consequences for global and regional stability, trade, and the economy. The most significant impacts and consequences are as follows:
1- Disruption of global trade:
The Red Sea serves as a crucial maritime route, but the disruptions caused by Houthi attacks have resulted in delays, rerouting, and higher costs for shipping companies and consumers. Notably, major shipping companies such as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd temporarily suspended their services in the Red Sea, impacting nearly 12% of global trade. To bypass the disruptions, rerouting shipments around the Cape of Good Hope adds approximately 3000 to 3500 nautical miles (equivalent to 6000 kilometers) to voyages, leading to increased shipping expenses.
2- Economic impact:
The crisis has disrupted the flow of goods and fuel, causing increased costs for major companies like BP, OOCL Hong Kong, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and Swiss-Italian operator MSC Cruises. Moreover, rerouting ship traffic and increased insurance costs are contributing to the overall expenses of shipments, potentially adding up to a million dollars in extra fuel costs per round trip between Asia and Europe. According to World Bank estimates, the crisis could reduce global GDP by 0.5% in 2024 and increase global inflation by 0.7%.
3- Security and stability concerns:
The current crisis in the Middle East and North Africa reflects broader tensions and conflicts involving multiple actors such as Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United States, the European Union, and the United Nations. The escalation of this conflict may lead to a wider regional war with devastating consequences for people, the environment, and the global economy. Undoubtedly, Houthi attacks and their declared war on Israel contribute to increased regional security concerns.
4- Humanitarian and environmental situation:
The crisis is compounding an already challenging humanitarian situation in the region, potentially affecting vulnerable and marginalized populations. Furthermore, attacks on merchant ships and escalating tensions could impede humanitarian aid efforts, exacerbating the suffering of affected communities. Conversely, Houthi attacks present a significant threat to the marine environment and biodiversity in the Red Sea. The utilization of missiles, drones, mines, and boats to target ships may result in oil spills and other environmental hazards, thereby impacting marine life and ecosystems.
The Geopolitical “Chicken” Dilemma
The ongoing crisis in the southern Red Sea sheds light on the geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East, as Iran backs the Houthi rebel group in Yemen and Hamas in Gaza. Iran's engagement in the region, including military support, exacerbates and prolongs conflicts. Nevertheless, the response from the international community, particularly the coalition led by the United States, underscores the significance of maritime routes in the Red Sea.
Moreover, the United States' entanglement in the Middle East conflict weakens its ability to provide assistance to Ukraine or ensure the security of Taiwan. Despite Iran's awareness of these circumstances, it continues to pursue geopolitical brinkmanship with the United States. In this scenario, the United States is left with limited viable choices. Specifically, the conflict in Gaza must either de-escalate or risk evolving into a broader regional crisis with global ramifications. Iran is actively pushing for the latter option. Consequently, the United States is exerting pressure on Israel to diminish the intensity of its military operations in Gaza.
The "game of chicken," also known as the Hawk-Dove game, is a conflict model in which two parties engage in risky behavior, each attempting to outlast the other without surrendering. In this game, neither party wants to be the first to back down due to the fear of feeling ashamed. This term often describes situations where the outcome could be harmful to both parties if neither chooses to yield.
In conclusion, in the short term, after the United States redesignated the Houthis as a global terrorist group on January 17, there are limited options available. Given the lack of international allies' support for Operation Prosperity Guardian, the United States may opt for indirect measures to curb future Houthi escalation. To avoid short-term escalation, the Red Sea crisis sheds light on long-term issues such as the Houthis' agenda, the effectiveness of their deterrence strategies, the United States' limited influence, militarization of the Red Sea, and the war in Gaza. All these factors pose challenges to future peace efforts. The security of the Red Sea, as evidenced by anti-piracy efforts, hinges on addressing security and political concerns in coastal states and those with strategic interests in the region. This strongly suggests the need to move away from the warship approach and embrace alternative strategies that promote sustainable security and peace, as advocated by the "Red Sea Arena" initiative.
